Exile #10 - Discussion

People I'm not ready to vote for at time time

-Boris, I just don't see how Boris was brought up as an alternate exile to a spy right now, if he was a spy too. The third spy wouldn't choose to bus Boris over Amelia unless they were damn stupid. So for now, Boris be clear
- Levi I just... trust him at this time.
- Kirsten, she very well might be a spy, but it's not worth the risk with the current evidence
- Roxy, it'll take a lot to convince me otherwise right now, especially after last night's exile
- Georgia, pretty sure she's a citizen these days. Again, especially after last night

People I Might Vote For
-Jenya, my time capsule reminded me I was once suspicious of her, I want to look into that more, but for the reasons I mentioned in my time capsule, her "mind games" which I don't think are really as citizenish as she likes to pretend, and her unexpected switch to Amelia.
- Pete, it's just a possibility, but an unlikely one. I'm more ready to believe than ever that the Spies might be Semi-Actives after Amelia
- Mirela, for her role in the Thor exile, which I find just so so scummy especially now that Amelia is confirmed. Note: NOT FOR HER FAIL LOGIC. I don't think a spy would be so dumb to push something so counter-everything normal humans think like she does, so I actually think that's a point in her favor
- Jason, I've randomly started looking his way all of a sudden. But I have no evidence or anything specific to say
- Khaled, for reasons that every person in the burg have gone over 100 times, though he's looking better after last night
- Gretchen, for Levi's reasons, basically. I wont let sheep accusations scare me into not sometimes being interested in other people's cases

Overall, I'm pretty unsure right now.

I am fairly certain the last 2 spies are from this group of 3:

Gretchen, Georgia, Khaled.

We should take some time to examine the episode 2 teams:

My Team: Ep 2

Two dead spies: Donald + Jaya.

Living players: Gretchen + Georgia + Kirsten + Pete + Roxy + Tiberius.

There is at least 1 more spy from this group, and there is a chance for 2 more spies (for balance reasons I will go into later).

Roxy + Tiberius are both very likely citizens based on their interactions with spies (both remained unwaveringly on Amelia. Tiberius voted spies both the first two episodes. Jaya voted Donald based on his PM to her, and was pushed by Jaya as an information lynch).

I'm a citizen.

Pete is probably a citizen based on his voting record the first two rounds, him being an Amelia supporter both episodes 8/9, and because the guy really seems like a citizen when you chat with him.

That leaves Gretchen and Georgia.

If there are 2 spies left from this team, I bet it's those two (outside shot at Pete). If there is only 1 spy left, then have your pick.

The other team: Ep 2

Dead spies: Paris (sort of a spy), Iris, Amelia, Almathea (hypothesized)

Living players: Khaled, Boris, Jenya, Jason, Mirela, Levi

There is at most 1 remaining spy from this team, and it's possible there aren't any left here.

Jenya is probably a citizen based on her role, her actions throughout the game (looks to be hunting spies), and being on the episode 1 team that nailed a spy and has 3 dead spies from it already.

Mirela is likely a citizen based on her interactions with Iris, Amelia trying to push that she was a spy based on her being replaced, from pushing the Thor exile (I thought she looked like a citizen doing so), and based on my read from extensive chatting.

Levi is likely a citizen based on interactions with spies (Iris made him her bitch, was the competing wagon to Donald), and because he's one of the few players in this game who is actively seeking to find spies by pulling up evidence, interviewing players, and proposing ideas.

Jason is meh, probably a citizen based on being on the team he was episode 1, and I think him pro-actively pushing Yvette was a citizen-tell, but he hasn't done much for me lately. This is a citizen read I am "less sure of."

Boris I believe to be a citizen, based on the events of last exile, and because I don't think Sam would make a Russian a spy because of possible stereotyping. /late nod to Iris

Khaled I get mixed reads on. Has done limited scum hunting. Is connected to Iris in a less than flattering light. Voted Amelia over Yvette episode 3 based on very weak reasoning (distancing). The watcher role could go either way on it's own. On the other hand, though, Khaled strikes me as less likely to have imprisoned Ariel because it points back to him based on episode 1 groups.

I think if there is a spy here, it's Khaled. Outside shot to Jason.

Group Analysis

The group assignments in episode 2 were symmetrical from the group 1 assignments.

8 Members of the stronghold went into episode 2. They were split 4-4 amongst the two groups.

All 11 members of Mei Yun's went into episode 2. They were splity 6-5 amongst the two groups. Team Me got 6, while Team Not Me got 5.

From that, we can hypothesize that The Clusterfuck was split 6-5 in the opposite fashion to keep team numbers even. Since the living members of this team were split 5-5, we can hypothesize that Almathea was originally part of that team.

Which means we had:

Jaya + Donald

vs.

Almathea + Paris + Iris + Amelia

A fully balanced plate would have the remaining two spies both be from my team (thus Gretchen/Georgia with outside Pete chance). This isn't necessarily ironclad, though, as maybe Paris didn't count in balancing and perhaps I'm wrongly assigning Almathea, which means there could still be one left from that team. That would be Khaled, with outside Jason chance.

So, Georgia, Gretchen, Khaled.

There's a wagon?

People I Think Are Probable Citizens: Jenya, Kirsten, Tiberius, Pete, Roxy

People Who Have an Outside Chance of Spyhood: Georgia, Boris, Mirela, Jason

My Suspects: Khaled, Gretchen

So wait. Pete Believes in the dreaded "Mirela-logic"?

It looks like Mirela convinced Pete of this.?

Thor did have a bit of evidence on him, and Mirela (and Jason, lets not forget him too, people dont seem to remember him!) did a good job at convincing me that Thor was not only a very likely spy, but, much more dangerous to keep around then Amelia (who we had both agreed upon as being a spy?!)


It says right there that Mirela (and Jason) did a good job of convincing him (Pete).

June 20th

spies6mirela (4:32:41 AM): imma head to bed soon, soon as i finish this convo with petey lol
spies6Kirsten (4:32:44 AM): and also tired in the regular sense of the word too
spies6Kirsten (4:32:49 AM): oh, is pete on?
spies6mirela (4:32:56 AM): yeah, i'm speaking with him right now
spies6mirela (4:33:03 AM): were finally having a real conversation lol
spies6Kirsten (4:33:12 AM): madness

spies6mirela (7:58:34 PM): i hope gretchen ends up voting thor

Why is that Mirela? You didn't know I was planning on voting Thor as I never told you.

spies6Kirsten (12:06:08 AM): I talked to William and Gretchen
spies6Kirsten (12:06:13 AM): Gretchen seems willing to vote Thor
spies6mirela (12:06:20 AM): LOL
spies6mirela (12:06:27 AM): well that's good

Better yet, what is your purpose for ignoring me ?

And it continued to be a "secret" because why?
Did you talk to Amelia about Thor, Mirela?
Any thoughts on why an AmeliaSpy(whom you seemed so convinced of), would vote for ThorSpy (whom you thought more dangers)?

Georgia has placed a vote on one of the top two exile candidates 4 times out of 9 exiles:

Episode 1: She votes Mei Yun, who gets 3 votes to Roxy's 4.

Episode 4. She votes Levi, counterpart to Donald.

Episode 6. She votes Iris who was obviously a spy

Episode 7: She votes Thor, counterpart to Amelia.

I'm going to ignore episode 6, since that was basically an obvious vote that doesn't tell us much since it was unanimous.

Episode 1: (Georgia votes) Citizen -> (Actual exile) Unkown

Episode 4: (Georgia votes) Unkown -> (Actual exile) Spy

Episode 7: (Georgia votes) Citizen -> (Other Candidate) Spy

In 2 of the 3 cases where she has actually placed a vote on a target likely to be exiled it involved a spy as the candidate she did not vote for.

For someone who ignores bandwagons or other people's votes in determining how she votes, I find it suspicious that multiple times this has involved her voting against spies in close exiles. Georgia can basically get away with voting whoever she wants based on her playstyle, and I think it's suspicious that of the few times her vote has mattered in an exile it has been on the opposite wagon of a spy.