Rey
Rey
Amor del Rey
Posts: 161
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Theory
May 17, 2009 14:01:34 GMT -5
Post by Rey on May 17, 2009 14:01:34 GMT -5
The fact that Sam says we must vote out one of our own team members leads me to come to one conclusion: There is a minimum of one spy in each team. It wouldn't be fair to us if there wasn't at least one, right?
Therefore, later on in the game I suggest that you come back and read this. let's say that it's the final three. There are two people from Team 466244, and one person from Team 426264. There have been NO spies found from Team 466244. Chances are that someone from group A is a spy, thus clearing the player from Team 426264.
This is just something to keep in mind for later on in the game, as it may potentially help us in the final stages of the game.
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Theory
May 17, 2009 15:01:55 GMT -5
Post by Judge Sam on May 17, 2009 15:01:55 GMT -5
I appreciate the creative, logical thinking here and I think it's a good idea to share it. I was going to make an announcement that answers this question later on in the game but I'm gonna nip this one in the bud now cause it's a pet peeve of mine. Because the teams were decided randomly, it may be that one team has 0 Spies in it. The odds of that happening are 1.176%. Because that is so low I was willing to risk it. You might say, okay, it's low, but that means there's still probably at least one Spy in each group right? Well yes. But that's like lining up the players alphabetically, A-Ge, Gr-M, O-Z, then saying there's probably at least one Spy whose name starts between A and Ge. Which with 98.82% probability there is at least one. But that doesn't tell you much because there is no relationship between the first letter of their name and player's alignment, just like there is no relationship between placement in a team and a player's alignment. ;D
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Theory
May 17, 2009 15:32:15 GMT -5
Post by Robert on May 17, 2009 15:32:15 GMT -5
Because the teams were decided randomly, it may be that one team has 0 Spies in it. The odds of that happening are 1.176%. Because that is so low I was willing to risk it. Thanks. Now, can our maths guy go figure out, based on that, how many spies we have?
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Rey
Rey
Amor del Rey
Posts: 161
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Theory
May 17, 2009 15:36:09 GMT -5
Post by Rey on May 17, 2009 15:36:09 GMT -5
Thanks for clarifying Sam. There goes my theory, down the trash.
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Yvette
Yvette
Queen of the Byrg-enstocks
Posts: 24
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Theory
May 17, 2009 16:10:51 GMT -5
Post by Yvette on May 17, 2009 16:10:51 GMT -5
Not necessarily, Rey. Although your theory is not 100% accurate, it would now be about 98%+ accurate. Not something to forget later in the game, although, odds and probabilities in things like this are always conjecture at one point, unless specifically the ratio is 100-0
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Theory
May 18, 2009 2:43:46 GMT -5
Post by Khaled on May 18, 2009 2:43:46 GMT -5
I agree--this is something useful to keep in mind for later in the game. Also, Rey, to make you feel better...in terms of statistics, a model is generally accepted if it's accurate at least 95% of the time.
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Theory
May 18, 2009 3:42:44 GMT -5
Post by Robert on May 18, 2009 3:42:44 GMT -5
As the distribution was random it isn't useless at all. Not in the slightest. As Sam said, we could equally say there would be at least one spy in the first 11 members when sorted into alphabetical order.
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