Post by Khaled on May 21, 2009 18:19:47 GMT -5
Player analysis, Episode 1
For a list of tells used, the following sites are applicable:
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Finding_Mafia (Day 1 Mafia Tells section)
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Vote_Analysis
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=How_to_Focus_on_Scum_and_Get_them_Lynched
Additional tells (that aren’t explicitly listed in those four sites)
-Fast, hard, unrelenting accusatory behavior is usually citizen
-The third or fourth person to jump behind a case is usually scum
Big things I was looking for in this Episode were the following:
Strong commitment to a case leans citizen.
Heavy, open communication leans citizen.
Switching amongst vote suspects leans spy.
Resistance to open communication leans spy.
Results
Yvette—Weakly Citizen. She sticks to her guns to the point where they’ve fused with her hands. She has, however, been a bit wishy-washy in who she’s pointing her guns at.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=512
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=535
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg90999&action=display&thread=545
Ariel—Neutral positive. She is decisive, but not as vocal. However, she is very open to communication and takes strong stances with her suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=552
Robert—Neutral neutral. He guns hard for his targeted suspect, but he does value secrecy to a degree. He was also wishy-washy a bit in his suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=528
Callahan—Neutral negative. He doesn’t fall into the major tells I was looking for this time around, but the conversation I had with him today is quite the eyebrow raiser (see my AIM dump) for that.
Ed—Neutral neutral. This is a low activity neutrality, since he hasn’t really done an indicative action.
Faith—Neutral negative. Her posts are a bit fluffy, and she hasn’t started any case, but she did jump behind the Robert case while it was active (and not quickly, either).
Mirela—Neutral positive. She took a quick jump onto Callahan early on, which is usually citizen behavior, but she hasn’t been around much to give a good read.
Iris—Neutral negative. She jumped onto established cases later on (like Robert and Callahan).
Thor—Neutral negative. He hasn’t done anything of substance yet aside from an “I agree,” or “I disagree” style of things.
Activity Pattern Analysis
This is essentially a substance vs. presence relation. The higher the ratio of substance to presence presented, the more likely an individual is to be a citizen. This essentially boils down to number of arguments presented over number of posts.
Nobody is in the spy category (<0.5).
Iris, Faith, Thor, and Ed are moving towards spy category (which is 0.5<x<0.8).
Callahan and Mirela are in the neutral category (0.8<x<1.2)
Yvette, Ariel, and Robert are in citizen category (which is >1.2).
(More to come shortly, as I'm still writing. I figured I'd give you guys a start on reading).
For a list of tells used, the following sites are applicable:
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Finding_Mafia (Day 1 Mafia Tells section)
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Vote_Analysis
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=How_to_Focus_on_Scum_and_Get_them_Lynched
Additional tells (that aren’t explicitly listed in those four sites)
-Fast, hard, unrelenting accusatory behavior is usually citizen
-The third or fourth person to jump behind a case is usually scum
Big things I was looking for in this Episode were the following:
Strong commitment to a case leans citizen.
Heavy, open communication leans citizen.
Switching amongst vote suspects leans spy.
Resistance to open communication leans spy.
Results
Yvette—Weakly Citizen. She sticks to her guns to the point where they’ve fused with her hands. She has, however, been a bit wishy-washy in who she’s pointing her guns at.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=512
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=535
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg90999&action=display&thread=545
Ariel—Neutral positive. She is decisive, but not as vocal. However, she is very open to communication and takes strong stances with her suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=552
Robert—Neutral neutral. He guns hard for his targeted suspect, but he does value secrecy to a degree. He was also wishy-washy a bit in his suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=528
Callahan—Neutral negative. He doesn’t fall into the major tells I was looking for this time around, but the conversation I had with him today is quite the eyebrow raiser (see my AIM dump) for that.
Ed—Neutral neutral. This is a low activity neutrality, since he hasn’t really done an indicative action.
Faith—Neutral negative. Her posts are a bit fluffy, and she hasn’t started any case, but she did jump behind the Robert case while it was active (and not quickly, either).
Mirela—Neutral positive. She took a quick jump onto Callahan early on, which is usually citizen behavior, but she hasn’t been around much to give a good read.
Iris—Neutral negative. She jumped onto established cases later on (like Robert and Callahan).
Thor—Neutral negative. He hasn’t done anything of substance yet aside from an “I agree,” or “I disagree” style of things.
Activity Pattern Analysis
This is essentially a substance vs. presence relation. The higher the ratio of substance to presence presented, the more likely an individual is to be a citizen. This essentially boils down to number of arguments presented over number of posts.
Nobody is in the spy category (<0.5).
Iris, Faith, Thor, and Ed are moving towards spy category (which is 0.5<x<0.8).
Callahan and Mirela are in the neutral category (0.8<x<1.2)
Yvette, Ariel, and Robert are in citizen category (which is >1.2).
(More to come shortly, as I'm still writing. I figured I'd give you guys a start on reading).
