Khaled's Episode 1 Report

[Khaled]

Player analysis, Episode 1

For a list of tells used, the following sites are applicable:
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Finding_Mafia (Day 1 Mafia Tells section)
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Vote_Analysis
mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=How_to_Focus_on_Scum_and_Get_them_Lynched

Additional tells (that aren’t explicitly listed in those four sites)
-Fast, hard, unrelenting accusatory behavior is usually citizen
-The third or fourth person to jump behind a case is usually scum

Big things I was looking for in this Episode were the following:
Strong commitment to a case leans citizen.
Heavy, open communication leans citizen.
Switching amongst vote suspects leans spy.
Resistance to open communication leans spy.

Results
Yvette—Weakly Citizen. She sticks to her guns to the point where they’ve fused with her hands. She has, however, been a bit wishy-washy in who she’s pointing her guns at.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=512
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=535
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg90999&action=display&thread=545

Ariel—Neutral positive. She is decisive, but not as vocal. However, she is very open to communication and takes strong stances with her suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=552

Robert—Neutral neutral. He guns hard for his targeted suspect, but he does value secrecy to a degree. He was also wishy-washy a bit in his suspicions.
See the following threads:
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=team9757&action=display&thread=528

Callahan—Neutral negative. He doesn’t fall into the major tells I was looking for this time around, but the conversation I had with him today is quite the eyebrow raiser (see my AIM dump) for that.

Ed—Neutral neutral. This is a low activity neutrality, since he hasn’t really done an indicative action.

Faith—Neutral negative. Her posts are a bit fluffy, and she hasn’t started any case, but she did jump behind the Robert case while it was active (and not quickly, either).
Mirela—Neutral positive. She took a quick jump onto Callahan early on, which is usually citizen behavior, but she hasn’t been around much to give a good read.

Iris—Neutral negative. She jumped onto established cases later on (like Robert and Callahan).

Thor—Neutral negative. He hasn’t done anything of substance yet aside from an “I agree,” or “I disagree” style of things.

Activity Pattern Analysis
This is essentially a substance vs. presence relation. The higher the ratio of substance to presence presented, the more likely an individual is to be a citizen. This essentially boils down to number of arguments presented over number of posts.

Nobody is in the spy category (<0.5).
Iris, Faith, Thor, and Ed are moving towards spy category (which is 0.5<x<0.8).
Callahan and Mirela are in the neutral category (0.8<x<1.2)
Yvette, Ariel, and Robert are in citizen category (which is >1.2).

(More to come shortly, as I'm still writing. I figured I'd give you guys a start on reading).

[Ariel]

I see that you're "neutral" on everyone save Yvette, Khaled. Why is that?

[Khaled]

May 21, 2009 18:29:41 GMT -5 Ariel said:

I see that you're "neutral" on everyone save Yvette, Khaled. Why is that?

Sorry, I realized I didn't post a key:

The scale ranges...
Confirmed Citizen
Strongly Citizen
Weakly Citizen
Neutral Positive
Neutral Neutral
Neutral Negative
Suspect
Weakly Spy
Strongly Spy
Confirmed Spy

The levels follow trends from games of Mafia/Werewolf I've both participated in and moderated, where player actions were correlated with alignment. The more actions a player takes towards a specific direction, the more likely they are a citizen or spy. The neutral categories exist mostly for early game use--they indicate action in a specific direction, but not enough to establish a trend. The suspect category, also, is present as a role-holder safety net. It's not uncommon for a guardian or seer type role to come under fire when they want to remain secret.

[Khaled]

I forgot to include in my notes on Callahan--he employed the use of the chainsaw defense on both Robert and Yvette. This basically puts him right on the edge of being suspect.

[Jenya]

This is neat. How long does it usually take for spies to filter to the top using this system?

[Khaled]

This table marks the level of accusation a player has leveled against another player. The rows indicate accuser, the column indicates accused.

PS, the table creation method in this response form is terrible. It's basically like HTML.

A dash is the same as a blank, meaning no accusation leveled. An X is in the blank corresponding to accusing oneself, because that's silly.

Player	Ariel	Robert	Callahan	Yvette	Ed	Faith	Khaled	Mirela	Iris	Thor
Ariel	X	-	1	-	2	-	2	-	-	-
Robert	-	X	4	5
Callahan	-	2	X	2
Yvette	-	5	5	X	-	-	3
Ed					X
Faith		1	1			X
Khaled		1	1	1			X	1		1
Mirela			3					X
Iris			1				1	1	X	1
Thor			2							X

[Callahan]

put me down for a 1 with ed too.

Consider it my last meal, and you're the one eating it.

[Ed]

I'm glad to see you finally contributing Khaled.

[Callahan]

aw, my boi khaled always contributes. just in the AM you know what i'm sayin

[Ed]

I know he talks to people, I've had a few discussions with him as well, but getting him to say anything of worth is like pulling teeth.

[Khaled]

May 21, 2009 19:50:20 GMT -5 Ed said:

I know he talks to people, I've had a few discussions with him as well, but getting him to say anything of worth is like pulling teeth.

Pot calling the kettle black? =P

Also, the key for numeric tallies in the table are...
1 - Offhand comment suggesting suspicion
2 - Repeated occurences of offhand comments suggesting suspicion
3 - Active discussion of suspicion against someone
4 - Strong accusation
5 - Full blown, pedal-to-the-metal lynch-this-person hunger.