NEW UPDATE ~ lists with you in them! exile #4 data

[Judge Sam]

so I'll post more when I get it but these Exile #4 lists are very revealing. Assuming that they are accurate lists of who these people think are a spy and a citizen it tells me a lot. So I'll put together the data and show off some things. Recall that this does not include Ellis, Oswald, or Iris' opinions.


What I did was add up each person's rankings like 3rd + 9th + 11th or whatever. The 'average' score would then be 57.5 if people just guessed randomly.


Someone has a score in the 70-76 range, yikes haha. I hope they stick around.

The average score of Citizens is actually slightly worse than if they had all just went to random.org to make their lists! And that includes their high rankings of Donald! That's actually pretty surprising.


The 'best' score is in the 42-48 range which actually isn't very good! So maybe things are looking a little up.

I might do more analysis on how suspicious each person is. But here are two really interesting ones:

(remember that 1 = voted for them at Exile #4 22 = want to vote for them last out of everyone at Exile #4)


Jason's rankings: 22 19 20 20 21 16 19 22 19 21 8 18 22 17 15 21 19 15 12 21

Iris's rankings: 21 2 15 5 18 2 11 2 10 15 13 16 14 7 9 5 22 17 10 20 10

[Almathea]

I would say that Jason is by far the most citizen but runs the risk of the Angus curse - not getting imprisoned.

In Spies 2 and 3, Tyson (2) and the Five (3) all had an affliction of either being mid table in suspicions, a slightly bad voting record, an inactive streak - SOME KIND of imperfection. Jason does not have, so I suspect he is in the 42-48 range.

Pete imo was as clueless as me in Episode 1 - but he had something I didn't, some tact and the ability to stay quiet. I think Pete ranks up there with William in the Burg in terms of inactivity but iirc he was almost always on AIM. I suspect he has a high ranking but its better in the long term.

Amelia - not joking, I always have to think who the other spy is! Amelia is inactive on the Burg AND AIM. Not good. She is too hard to read from a viewing perspective, so her ranking will be a good indicator to me. I suspect she will be gone soon or last late into the game. If she is taking an inactive strategy, it appears she doesnt have built up many relationships which could save her.

Iris - something about Iris (her picture, her affilliation with the Powerful Clique of RAY + Faith) makes her stand out. She seems to be high on people's list - which was NOT HELPED by the Jailor, I suspect she is in the 70-80 range. In terms of where she stands I think she is good. As I said she stands out, she was in a powerful clique, she was never the #1 target of Rey/Jenya camp and she isn't part of the mush of interchangable angry women (Gretchen/Kirsten/Mirela/Roxy).

[Judge Sam]

I agree with ya w/ Jason.

I didn't explain my numbers good enough haha sorry. By 42-48 I meant "how good did they guess the spies." So that citizen who scored that # has that much of a good guess on the real Spies.

[Almathea]

what about the 70-80 score? Why is 42-48 the "best"?

[Judge Sam]

Well for example here is Ed's list:

2 : Mirela
17 : William
11 : Thor
14 : Oswald
22 : Tiberius
6 : Faith
5 : Iris
21 : Pete
19 : Ellis
10 : Khaled
20 : Jason
13 : Rey
15 : Kirsten
8 : Boris
18 : Ariel
9 : Amelia
3 : Levi
4 : Gretchen
7 : Jenya
1 : Donald
12 : Georgia
16 : Roxy

5+21+20+9 = 55. That's about a medium score.


If his score was 42, that means he knew the Spies better than most. If his score was 76, that means he has no idea who the Spies are.

[Judge Sam]

Looking at these again, meaning this is everyone's list and where they had Jason or Iris:

(since people listed 1-22, a person of average suspicion would be ranked 11.5)


Jason's rankings: 22 19 20 20 21 16 19 22 19 21 8 18 22 17 15 21 19 15 12 21

Average rank on people's lists: 18.35

That's sick. An average that low on people's lists is unheard of lol. That might be the most Citizen-like I've ever had a Spy be. Holy crap.

Iris's rankings: 21 2 15 5 18 2 11 2 10 15 13 16 14 7 9 5 22 17 10 20 10

Average rank on people's lists: 12

Iris's score is a tiny bit better than average. Which is really good! If you look at the numbers you can see a few people suspect her (2 2 2 5 7) and a few people think she's a Citizen (20 21 22). That is, if these rankings are true barometers, they might not be lol.

[Judge Sam]

woah. okay here is all citizens except oswald's lists added together. so it's like 5th + 4th + 3rd ranking = 12 and 20th + 21st + 22nd ranking = 63. lower number = spyish higher number = cittish


1 Donald 89.5
2 Levi 91.5
3 Mirela 109.5
4 Faith 121.5
5 Ed 142.5
6 Boris 147.5
7 Georgia 152.5
8 Amelia 162.5
9 Gretchen 165.5
10 William 187.5
11 Khaled 192.5
12 Iris 207.5
13 Rey 211.5
14 Thor 212.5
15 Oswald 215
16 Ariel 241.5
17 Jenya 245.5
18 Ellis 264.5
19 Roxy 267.5
20 Kirsten 268.5
21 Tiberius 269.5
22 Pete 270.5
23 Jason 317.5




that's really good!

and it was really close between levi/donald, i think 1 or 2 people switched at the last minute. there was a late push for donald, actually I was invited to a chat with ellis/rey/kirsten/pete/jason where ellis was pushing everyone to up donald on their lists... and typical jason/pete didn't say a word during the whole thing. -_-

[Donald]

It's their faults I was exiled!

Rey at least mentioned I said I'd be away during this time, and gave pretty significantly early notice...

[Donald]

And that's sick with Jason and Pete as the top two cits I'm really surprised.

[Thor]

I love how I had a better score than Rey. And everyone below Iris, including Pete and Jason, was someone I had perceived as strongly Citizen, but Iris and above were all people I highly suspected at one point or another (except Boris). XD

[Kirsten]

I think I had a pretty good score, but I can't quite remember.

I had Donald #1, and Iris #2. Amelia was like 12th on my list. I can't remember where Pete/Jason ended up, but I think Pete was around 14ish, and Jason 15-19ish.

The bottom half of my list was kind of me just throwing it together and not caring about order, though, so I even if I had a good list, it was kind of random (except for Iris/Donald. Whooo).

[Ed]

I also threw together the end of my list somewhat haphazardly, but still....for 2 spies to be at the bottom of the cumulative list is pretty amazing.

[Kirsten]

Donald: 1
Iris: 2
Pete: 12
Amelia: 14
Jason: 16

Score: 45.

Sam, out of curiosity, who had the best score. Do you know offhand?

[Ellis]

Aug 14, 2009 1:22:33 GMT -5 Kirsten said:

Donald: 1
Iris: 2
Pete: 12
Amelia: 14
Jason: 16

Score: 45.

Sam, out of curiosity, who had the best score. Do you know offhand?

LOL, I think I'm scoring worse than that with just Pete, Jason and Iris, so it's not me this time. (I say "this time" because in Spies 3 we did a similar thing, and it was...) I've considered adding up the scores, but after seeing that I didn't mention a single suspicion of Jason anywhere in this entire episode, I don't want yet another blow to my ego, thanks.

[Jason]

In that case we should definitely add the scores up!! j/k

I had a score of 45.... But that's without myself. I'm sort of disappointed that I left Iris and Pete so far back on the list

[Kirsten]

Aug 14, 2009 16:50:29 GMT -5 Jason said:

In that case we should definitely add the scores up!! j/k

I had a score of 45.... But that's without myself. I'm sort of disappointed that I left Iris and Pete so far back on the list

You could have had a score of 10 but you blew it.

[Judge Sam]

I had lost the pieces of paper I used to calculate the vote for this Episode but after rummaging through some things I was able to find it!


There's tons of interesting data here, some of which is in this thread. You can view it all for yourself in this Excel file I uploaded to Google Spreadsheets: spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmZ_k4rQEClsdENvaWxySDR1N2VkWko3aHF5YkRCZ1E&hl=en


That right there calculates how suspicious everyone in the game is based on their Exile #4 lists. If more people list you at the top, then they think you are a Spy. Here's the complete list:


Rank - Name - Total Points - Average Placing

1 Donald 135.5 7.528
2 Levi 149 8.278
3 Mirela 167 9.278
4 Faith 179 9.944
5 Ed 200 11.111
6 Boris 205 11.389
7 Amelia 208.5 11.583
8 Georgia 210 11.667
9 Gretchen 223 12.389
10 William 245 13.611
11 Khaled 250 13.889
12 Iris 253.5 14.083
13 Rey 269 14.944
14 Thor 270 15
15 Oswald 272.5 15.1389
16 Ariel 299 16.611
17 Jenya 303 16.833
18 Pete 316.5 17.583
19 Ellis 322 17.889
20 Roxy 325 18.056
21 Kirsten 326 18.111
22 Tiberius 327 18.167
23 Jason 363.5 20.194



(Some of this data may be different than ones I reported in this thread, I found an error and fixed it. The list is basically the same with the exception that Pete has moved from 22nd to 18th most suspicious.)


Now that only includes citizen's suspicions, I guess if you wanted a look at the game as a whole was feeling at the time you would include the Spies true lists. Since Oswald and the Spies did not submit lists, I used the average ranking of 11.5. This is because the goal is to get the most amount of points, if you don't give out any points than you are giving an advantage to yourself.


So that's how the citizens thought of the game at the time of Exile #4. They got one Spy at the top which is excellent! Unfortunately they also have one Spy at the bottom. -_- Iris is smack dab in the middle and the other two are almost exactly in the middle of the top half and bottom half. That's crazy!


But how accurate were your suspicions compared to others? Here's how I calculated it. You ranked all the players from 1-22. I just added up your rankings to get a point score. Like if you ranked the Spies 1st, 3rd, 8th, 11th, and 15th, I'd add up 1 + 3 + 8 + 11 + 15 = 38 points. The one with the least points wins!


(for Spies I added 11.5 points to themselves to make it comparable. Iris was Jailed.)

LEAST POINTS

45.0 - Kirsten (ranked Donald 1st, Iris 2nd, Pete 12th, Amelia 14th, Jason 16th out of 22 people)
48.0 - Gretchen
48.5 - Pete
50.0 - Khaled
50.0 - Rey
50.0 - Boris
50.5 - Amelia
53.5 - Jason
54.0 - Ed
54.0 - Mirela
55.0 - Ellis
57.5 - RANDOM.ORG's SCORE
59.0 - Thor
60.0 - Jenya
61.0 - Faith
63.0 - Roxy
63.0 - William
67.0 - Tiberius
67.0 - Georgia
70.0 - Ariel
72.0 - Levi (ranked Donald 3rd, Pete 11th, Amelia 15th, Iris 21st, Jason 22nd out of 22 people)
80.5 - Donald

MOST POINTS


So I think that was pretty cool, what do you think?

Another interesting thing to note, is that if you average out the Citizen's scores, you get 58.1, which is worse than RANDOM.ORG's score. ;D

[Rey]

Yay for fourth! Yay for Gretchen being SECOND!

[Gretchen]

Yes, well quite clearly I am very, very stupid Rey.

Just ask DC and Xman.

Pfffffffft.

[Ellis]

Aug 16, 2009 23:45:16 GMT -5 Rey said:

Yay for fourth! Yay for Gretchen being SECOND!

Yay for beating random.org but being outscored by three spies!

Oh wait...

EDIT: come to think of it, I'm gonna say the same thing I said in Spies 3 in a similar situation as this. In this one Kirsten's spy picks only averaged position 9 out of 21 (5 spies, 45 points). And that was the single best score of the lot. That's TERRIBLE!