From JENYA:I'm sending this message to Tiberius, Pete, Jason, Ellis, Kirsten and Thor.
Rey told or hinted to two of you that I have a role. Ellis told or hinted to one of you. Since I've been getting suspected and getting votes in the Burg, if I get Imprisoned today, it's almost definitely because one of the recipients of this PM is a spy.
No big whoop, just keep it in mind as you continue to hunt spies. And whether Rey's a Cit or a Spy, you now know he's a blabbermouth, if you already didn't. It's possible that I don't actually have a role, and that this is an elaborate test or a way to confirm people's citizenship, and since there's no way more than one of my original group is a spy, I'll just tell two of them the honest truth and they can let the true story out if/when I get Imprisoned.
If I go, I suggest you keep an eye on Faith, William, Ariel, Rey, Boris and Kirsten. I'm pretty sure there are at least two spies in that crew.
I think Levi, Oswald, Mirela, Gretchen, Tiberius, Pete, Thor, Jason, Khaled, Ellis and Amelia seem pretty Cittish, about in that order. Make Ellis and Jason do some more useful things--they've been slacking and don't look as Cit as they used to.
That leaves Ed, Georgia, Iris in the middle.
I think you guys should talk Mirela up as a Citizen today and tomorrow--big time. See how people react. A few of us have been discussing her since last exile and are pretty sure she's a Cit now. I won't say who, cause that could get them in trouble for reasons you'll see soon.
Let's talk more this weekend. Those of us that survive, that is.
More from JENYA:I don't think Kirsten should be exiled over this alone, but I am confused by how she handled the Ed situation. Check these chats out:
Sunday, right after Donald's exile:
spies6Kirsten (8:09:23 PM): soo
spies6Jenya (8:10:27 PM): Sooo.
spies6Kirsten (8:10:38 PM): I have some interesting information...
spies6Jenya (8:10:52 PM): What's that?
spies6Kirsten (8:10:59 PM): I almost feel like I'm being setup in some fashion
spies6Kirsten (8:11:07 PM): and, there's a decent chance I am
spies6Kirsten (8:12:14 PM): but, someone confronted me regarding a PM they got from Sam. The PM said that they were going to be imprisoned episode 5.
spies6Kirsten (8:12:38 PM): you wouldn't happen to know anything about that, would you?
spies6Jenya (8:13:02 PM): That's bizarre.
spies6Jenya (8:13:54 PM): I don't think Imprisonments are chosen this early.. what would that message be all about?
spies6Kirsten (8:13:58 PM): right
spies6Kirsten (8:14:11 PM): well, the message apparently came before the imprisonment 4 imprisonment
spies6Kirsten (8:14:31 PM): and said, that this player was safe from imp4, but would be imprisoned in 5
spies6Jenya (8:15:06 PM): Interesting.
spies6Kirsten (8:15:07 PM): and this player later mentioned that they were given an update, saying they had been chosen for imp 5
spies6Jenya (8:15:49 PM): That's really weird.
spies6Kirsten (8:17:02 PM): anyway, I'm not sure what's up with it all, but between me finding out about your role, and then being confronted with this all in the same episode...kind of fishy
spies6Jenya (8:17:18 PM): Well, it's always possible that people are testing you out.
spies6Kirsten (8:17:26 PM): yeah
spies6Jenya (8:17:35 PM): It's hard to be a spy and sort all that information that's supposed to be secret and not secret.
spies6Kirsten (8:18:02 PM): my two thoughts are this
spies6Kirsten (8:18:21 PM): 1. I'm being tested...to see if I would tell anyone...to see if I would tell you, etc.
spies6Jenya (8:18:42 PM): As long as you keep pointing out spies, I'm cool with ya.
spies6Kirsten (8:18:46 PM): 2. I'm being told this by someone who knows about your role for the purpose of throwing away your ability
spies6Kirsten (8:19:27 PM): or, rather, this whole deal originated with someone who knows about your role, etc.
spies6Kirsten (8:33:22 PM): Ed/Khaled are still on my list
spies6Kirsten (8:33:31 PM): although Khaled looked a lot more citizen today
spies6Jenya (9:16:46 PM): What's that make you think about Rey?
spies6Kirsten (9:17:11 PM): I don't know. He asked me about an hour ahead of time who he should vote for because he was scrambling for a vote
spies6Jenya (9:17:24 PM): You seem to have made up your mind finally at about noon?
spies6Kirsten (9:17:27 PM): I basically just told him repeatedly that I was voting Donald. Ed was my number 2.
spies6Jenya (9:17:31 PM): Your case was on Levi Wednesday.
spies6Jenya (9:17:42 PM): Then you said Sunday that you'd gradually shifted
spies6Kirsten (9:17:50 PM): I told people in chat the day before the exile that I was no longer voting Levi
spies6Kirsten (9:17:57 PM): at that point, it was Mirela or Donald
spies6Jenya (9:27:57 PM): Who would you push for exile next?
spies6Kirsten (9:28:09 PM): in it's original form, someone targets Pete with that and nobody knows the difference
spies6Jenya (9:28:30 PM): LOL
spies6Kirsten (9:28:35 PM): Irirs, Faith, possibly Ed
spies6Kirsten (11:13:00 PM): so, why is Ariel/Faith sketchier than Iris/Ed?
spies6Kirsten (11:35:45 PM): what makes Faith/Ariel better suspects than Iris/Ed?
spies6Jenya (11:36:03 PM): I get cit vibes from Ed once in a while.. little things
spies6Jenya (11:36:08 PM): And I haven't seen him be evasive
spies6Jenya (11:36:14 PM): He's pretty straightforward
spies6Kirsten (11:36:16 PM): I've seen him be evasive
spies6Jenya (11:36:23 PM): Where/when?
spies6Kirsten (11:36:44 PM): I asked him about the post I made on Levi
spies6Kirsten (11:36:50 PM): he gave about the most evasive answer imaginable
spies6Kirsten (11:37:46 PM): spies6Kirsten (6:51:18 PM): so..
spies6Kirsten (6:51:24 PM): did you read my post. Do you have any opinion?
spies6Ed (6:52:24 PM): Very clever, you even linked to you Levi post in your other post. I didn't even realize that at first.
spies6Ed (6:55:56 PM): Solid post, and the outline form lends it a bit of clas too.
spies6Kirsten (11:37:48 PM): spies6Kirsten (6:56:05 PM): I stay classy
spies6Ed (6:56:22 PM): I don't believe I've interacted with Levi outside of group chats where I find his schizophrenic act highly annoying.
spies6Ed (6:56:59 PM): With that said, you seem to have some legitimate evidence against him and I don't like how the only point he responded to was the one you said was least suspicious.
spies6Kirsten (6:57:12 PM): yeah
spies6Kirsten (6:57:25 PM): I was bothered by that as well.
spies6Ed (6:58:15 PM): I know it was early in the game, but his seemingly openness to vote whoever based on the popular vote at the time disturbs me the most.
spies6Ed (6:59:13 PM): I have to go, but I'll be back later.
spies6Jenya (11:38:37 PM): That's pretty honest.
spies6Kirsten (11:39:13 PM): I find it suspicious how he first spent a while discussing the formatting, and how I linked to it from another post.
spies6Kirsten (11:39:34 PM): buying time, irrelevant response
spies6Jenya (11:39:49 PM): Hmm.
spies6Jenya (11:40:03 PM): Sounds like he reviewed the case at the time?
spies6Jenya (11:40:16 PM): Took him 1 minute.
spies6Kirsten (11:40:26 PM): he had already read it
spies6Kirsten (11:40:29 PM): of that I am positive
spies6Kirsten (11:40:51 PM): simply because the first thing he pointed out was how I linked to it from another thread
spies6Kirsten (11:41:12 PM): also, I linked him directly to the post earlier in our chat
spies6Kirsten (11:41:16 PM): and he commented on it then
spies6Kirsten (11:41:29 PM): spies6Ed (6:30:14 PM): So are you planning on sticking with Levi as your top vote?
spies6Kirsten (6:30:37 PM):
spies6.proboards.com/index.cgi?bo....704&page=3#6418spies6Kirsten (6:30:39 PM): yes
spies6Ed (6:30:49 PM): Yep, just saw it after I asked
spies6Ed (6:31:12 PM): Outline form, fancy
spies6Jenya (11:43:44 PM): Overall I haven't been super suspicious of Ed.
spies6Jenya (11:44:02 PM): He's not terribly curious about me on a regular basis, but he was during the Yvette case.
spies6Kirsten (11:44:33 PM): how so?
spies6Jenya (11:44:44 PM): He seemed to be researching me a little.
spies6Jenya (11:44:54 PM): Checked his logs for conversations I had with dead spies
spies6Kirsten (11:46:34 PM): why would he have logs of you chatting with dead spies
spies6Jenya (11:47:15 PM): Like me chatting with Alma and Jaya before they died, apparently they talked with him
spies6Kirsten (11:47:52 PM): I know Jaya did at least
spies6Kirsten (11:48:00 PM): kind of surprised he would have chats with Alma
spies6Jenya (11:48:24 PM): I forget if it was both or just one but I know he was digging, which I saw as Cit.
spies6Kirsten (11:48:53 PM): yet when I dig it's suspicious
Wednesday I had to bring it up again.. she didn't:
spies6Jenya (1:01:58 AM): You hint that someone else already knows they're getting imprisoned.
spies6Kirsten (1:02:06 AM): I do
spies6Jenya (1:02:07 AM): That would be a relief but I don't buy it.
spies6Kirsten (1:02:14 AM): I don't buy it either
spies6Kirsten (1:02:40 AM): regarding that...do you know anything about that?
spies6Kirsten (1:02:47 AM): when we spoke last, you did not seem very surprised by the revelation
spies6Kirsten (1:03:02 AM): despite it being a surprising revelation
spies6Jenya (7:52:35 PM): So are you concerned about the person who's getting imprisoned tomorrow, or are you pretty ok with seeing them go?
spies6Kirsten (7:53:04 PM): the person who contacted me?
spies6Kirsten (7:53:10 PM): I'm ok with seeing them go
spies6Jenya (7:53:29 PM): That's what I figured.
spies6Kirsten (7:53:52 PM): why?
spies6Jenya (7:54:04 PM): Because you showed no interest in having me try to save them.
spies6Kirsten (7:54:19 PM): yeah
spies6Jenya (7:54:43 PM): I'm surprised they haven't bitched about it to people around town.
spies6Kirsten (7:54:48 PM): I don't believe the message, nor do I expect this person to be imprisoned.
spies6Jenya (7:54:58 PM): You'd think that someone knowing they're going to be imprisoned would be freaking out.
spies6Kirsten (7:56:25 PM): we discussed that. the person wasn't sure how to handle it (go public, just keep it private). I think the decision was just to keep it private, although I will definitely make it public if the imprisonment actually happens.
spies6Jenya (7:57:04 PM): I assume you'll let the Burg know about the stunt if it's a ruse.
spies6Kirsten (7:57:48 PM): if the imprisonment doesn't happen, and this player doesn't wish to make it public themselves, then I probably will. I have some analysis on the matter anyway.
spies6Jenya (8:16:16 PM): I wonder if I'd put in a save for them if it'd have been a full doc protect. Could have saved a nightkill there...
spies6Kirsten (8:16:51 PM): eh?
spies6Jenya (8:18:03 PM): Do you think the kill was blockable or was it some kind of bizarre assured imprisonment thing? That would be weird considering Sam asked me for my orders this time just like always.
spies6Kirsten (8:19:02 PM): I would assume it would be blockable
spies6Kirsten (8:19:04 PM): but I have no clue
spies6Jenya (8:19:39 PM): Hmm. You didn't want to give blocking a shot, eh?
spies6Jenya (8:19:49 PM): That's really strange to me.
spies6Kirsten (8:19:57 PM): hmm
spies6Kirsten (8:20:12 PM): the person isn't exactly a prime imprisonment choice.
spies6Jenya (8:20:49 PM): But saving the worst cit in town vs. an imprisonment, what's the right move?
spies6Kirsten (8:21:32 PM): this person isn't the worst cit in town, if they are a cit.
spies6Kirsten (8:21:52 PM): anyway, I mentioned it to you for the purpose of giving you a chance to save this player if you wanted.
spies6Kirsten (8:22:07 PM): you immediatley suggested it was something not to be believed.
spies6Kirsten (8:22:16 PM): so I didn't press it
spies6Kirsten (8:22:25 PM): especially considering that was my take on it as well
spies6Jenya (8:23:28 PM): I think giving more information to the town doc would have been prudent though. It's so odd that you chose not to.
spies6Kirsten (8:23:59 PM): I did give you the information. If you had any intention of saving this player, you would have asked me for who it was
spies6Jenya (8:24:28 PM): Actually, I was testing you to see if you gave a damn, and you didn't.
spies6Jenya (8:24:46 PM): So either you're a spy or you're fairly confident it's a false story, or both.
spies6Kirsten (8:25:09 PM): this person is one of my top suspects...
spies6Kirsten (8:25:30 PM): and I don't buy that answer
spies6Kirsten (8:25:41 PM): testing or no, you would have asked for more if you cared.
spies6Jenya (8:26:05 PM): Actually, I did ask, and you declined.
spies6Kirsten (8:26:10 PM): where?
spies6Kirsten (8:27:12 PM): you didn't ask me
spies6Kirsten (8:27:17 PM): at least not the night I presented you with it
spies6Kirsten (8:27:26 PM): I don't recall you ever asking me, though
spies6Jenya (8:27:37 PM): I'll have to look it up.
spies6Jenya (8:27:57 PM): But overall I'm left with the impression that you had no desire to save that person from Imprisonment.
spies6Jenya (8:28:16 PM): If they had a Psychic role or something, maybe they actually know the order.
spies6Jenya (8:28:25 PM): And now it's too late.
spies6Kirsten (8:28:32 PM): hahaha
spies6Kirsten (8:28:50 PM): it's funny you wait until after it's too late for you to save them, and then harass me about it.
spies6Kirsten (8:28:53 PM): you're the doc, not me
spies6Kirsten (8:29:37 PM): The reason I told you in the first place was to give you the option to choose to do so
spies6Kirsten (8:29:56 PM): you declined that option by not bothering to ask me about it, and instead suggest I was being tested.
spies6Kirsten (8:30:40 PM): besides, you defintiely gave off the impression you already knew about it.
spies6Kirsten (8:31:17 PM): your mannerisms in our chat that night was what prompted me to send you that PM
spies6Jenya (8:35:15 PM): I didn't know about it.
And then right before exile:
spies6Kirsten (4:25:49 PM): I'm nervous.
spies6Kirsten (4:26:00 PM): I have the feeling something is going to go down that is going to make this episode a shitstorm.
spies6Jenya (4:29:22 PM): Really?
spies6Kirsten (4:30:13 PM): yeah. Maybe I'm just paranoid, I don't know
spies6Kirsten (4:38:11 PM): if I get imprisoned...remember: Ed, Ariel, William, Faith...
And then after exile:
spies6Jenya (9:56:49 PM): So basically, I could have protected Ed if you told me he was being imprisoned?
spies6Kirsten (9:57:20 PM): I believe so, yes
spies6Jenya (9:57:46 PM): -1 Cit point, Kirsten
spies6Kirsten (9:58:10 PM): I told you, just not that it was Ed
spies6Jenya (9:58:25 PM): It would have been a no-brainer protect.
spies6Jenya (9:58:39 PM): And it seems even Sam said it was not inevitable?
spies6Jenya (9:58:44 PM): That's clearly what he meant.
spies6Kirsten (9:59:09 PM): I took that to mean, the spies could still change their minds, as in, why are they picking imprisonments episodes ahead of time
spies6Jenya (10:00:28 PM): Why on earth didn't Ed tell the Burg?
spies6Kirsten (10:00:40 PM): I would have told you if you had asked, or shown interest in it. I took your lack of interest/lack of surprise to be a sign that you already knew/were not interested
spies6Kirsten (10:00:49 PM): I don't know
spies6Jenya (10:00:57 PM): I assumed you were bullshitting. It sounded terribly farfetched.
spies6Kirsten (10:01:56 PM): I didn't think Ed was bullshitting me, but I also didn't think it was believable at all
spies6Kirsten (10:02:24 PM): I think our mutual lack of trust caused this to fail
I find a few things suspicious about the circumstances:
1) Kirsten suspected Ed #2 at Donald's exile.
2) Kirsten was talking to Ed right before Imprisonment
3) This is from Friday, May 29th:
spies6Kirsten (2:49:48 PM): Ed I feel fairly confident is a citizen.
4) this is from Thursday, June 4th:
spies6Kirsten (10:41:31 PM): Ed is another suspect of mine
So what caused Kirsten to move Ed from citizen to suspect so quickly between May 29th and June 4th? That was Future Weekend, when it's very likely the Spies had to make their pick for who to Imprison in the future.
Sketchy overall. Let's talk.
And even more from JENYA:Back on track:
Ariel -- alive
Faith -- alive
Iris -- alive
Thor -- alive
Khaled -- alive
Mirela -- alive and immune
Ed -- Imprisoned Cit
Robert -- Imprisoned Cit
Yvette -- Exiled Cit
Callahan -- Exiled Cit
Call me crazy, but scumminess aside, there are many reasons to exile someone from this group:
1) Assuming the most likely 2 spies there, there's a 33% chance of hitting a spy by random chance. A Cit in that group actually has a 40% chance of hitting a Spy with their vote.
2) Two of the four imprisonments have been from that group, possibly implying a relationship between a spy in that group (a spy who carries weight in the spy group) and the deceased.
3) Both mis-exiles have been people in that group. Implying that the people in that group didn't get to know the exiled very well and/or defend them very well. (Obviously a few did but the trend is the opposite.)
4) There have been 39 votes placed for known spies in this game. Only four of those from that little group, plus two for Paris.
5) We need a flip of a spy in that group to help us make sense of all the things that bunch has done since day one.
I still think we should find the best exile possible regardless of group, but the odds that we'll hit a spy in that skanky bunch seem to be drastically improving. Keep it in mind, and when you talk to people in that group, try to get them to give opinions on each other.
I'm sending this in private because I don't want the burg one-tracking on that group for this exile, but I figure you all are smart enough to hear it and keep an open mind.
MY response:I'm quite happy to assume two spies there. The trouble is, I'm not sure who they are. Khaled, Iris, Faith and Mirela could all be suspect in my mind, depending on other people's alignments. I especially have difficulty separating Faith and Iris.
But yes, I think you've definitely got a good point there, and I could definitely support a lynch of one of those people. It's just a question of which one.
I've been working on a case for a while now. I'll try and get it across to you tomorrow when I have more time to work on it.
