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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 8, 2009 4:24:45 GMT -5
so I'll post more when I get it but these Exile #4 lists are very revealing. Assuming that they are accurate lists of who these people think are a spy and a citizen it tells me a lot. So I'll put together the data and show off some things. Recall that this does not include Ellis, Oswald, or Iris' opinions. What I did was add up each person's rankings like 3rd + 9th + 11th or whatever. The 'average' score would then be 57.5 if people just guessed randomly. Someone has a score in the 70-76 range, yikes haha. I hope they stick around. The average score of Citizens is actually slightly worse than if they had all just went to random.org to make their lists! And that includes their high rankings of Donald! That's actually pretty surprising. The 'best' score is in the 42-48 range which actually isn't very good! So maybe things are looking a little up. I might do more analysis on how suspicious each person is. But here are two really interesting ones: (remember that 1 = voted for them at Exile #4 22 = want to vote for them last out of everyone at Exile #4) Jason's rankings: 22 19 20 20 21 16 19 22 19 21 8 18 22 17 15 21 19 15 12 21 Iris's rankings: 21 2 15 5 18 2 11 2 10 15 13 16 14 7 9 5 22 17 10 20 10
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Almathea
Almathea
Hotter than Faith, Eat more than Gretchen, Better nose than Jenya, dem bitches got nothin on me
Posts: 91
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Post by Almathea on Jun 8, 2009 10:17:43 GMT -5
I would say that Jason is by far the most citizen but runs the risk of the Angus curse - not getting imprisoned.
In Spies 2 and 3, Tyson (2) and the Five (3) all had an affliction of either being mid table in suspicions, a slightly bad voting record, an inactive streak - SOME KIND of imperfection. Jason does not have, so I suspect he is in the 42-48 range.
Pete imo was as clueless as me in Episode 1 - but he had something I didn't, some tact and the ability to stay quiet. I think Pete ranks up there with William in the Burg in terms of inactivity but iirc he was almost always on AIM. I suspect he has a high ranking but its better in the long term.
Amelia - not joking, I always have to think who the other spy is! Amelia is inactive on the Burg AND AIM. Not good. She is too hard to read from a viewing perspective, so her ranking will be a good indicator to me. I suspect she will be gone soon or last late into the game. If she is taking an inactive strategy, it appears she doesnt have built up many relationships which could save her.
Iris - something about Iris (her picture, her affilliation with the Powerful Clique of RAY + Faith) makes her stand out. She seems to be high on people's list - which was NOT HELPED by the Jailor, I suspect she is in the 70-80 range. In terms of where she stands I think she is good. As I said she stands out, she was in a powerful clique, she was never the #1 target of Rey/Jenya camp and she isn't part of the mush of interchangable angry women (Gretchen/Kirsten/Mirela/Roxy).
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 8, 2009 10:37:22 GMT -5
I agree with ya w/ Jason.
I didn't explain my numbers good enough haha sorry. By 42-48 I meant "how good did they guess the spies." So that citizen who scored that # has that much of a good guess on the real Spies.
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Almathea
Almathea
Hotter than Faith, Eat more than Gretchen, Better nose than Jenya, dem bitches got nothin on me
Posts: 91
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Post by Almathea on Jun 8, 2009 10:55:24 GMT -5
what about the 70-80 score? Why is 42-48 the "best"?
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 8, 2009 19:18:14 GMT -5
Well for example here is Ed's list:
2 : Mirela 17 : William 11 : Thor 14 : Oswald 22 : Tiberius 6 : Faith 5 : Iris 21 : Pete 19 : Ellis 10 : Khaled 20 : Jason 13 : Rey 15 : Kirsten 8 : Boris 18 : Ariel 9 : Amelia 3 : Levi 4 : Gretchen 7 : Jenya 1 : Donald 12 : Georgia 16 : Roxy
5+21+20+9 = 55. That's about a medium score.
If his score was 42, that means he knew the Spies better than most. If his score was 76, that means he has no idea who the Spies are.
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 8, 2009 19:24:49 GMT -5
Looking at these again, meaning this is everyone's list and where they had Jason or Iris: (since people listed 1-22, a person of average suspicion would be ranked 11.5) Jason's rankings: 22 19 20 20 21 16 19 22 19 21 8 18 22 17 15 21 19 15 12 21 Average rank on people's lists: 18.35 That's sick. An average that low on people's lists is unheard of lol. That might be the most Citizen-like I've ever had a Spy be. Holy crap. Iris's rankings: 21 2 15 5 18 2 11 2 10 15 13 16 14 7 9 5 22 17 10 20 10 Average rank on people's lists: 12 Iris's score is a tiny bit better than average. Which is really good! If you look at the numbers you can see a few people suspect her (2 2 2 5 7) and a few people think she's a Citizen (20 21 22). That is, if these rankings are true barometers, they might not be lol.
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 9, 2009 1:26:42 GMT -5
woah. okay here is all citizens except oswald's lists added together. so it's like 5th + 4th + 3rd ranking = 12 and 20th + 21st + 22nd ranking = 63. lower number = spyish higher number = cittish 1 Donald 89.52 Levi 91.5 3 Mirela 109.5 4 Faith 121.5 5 Ed 142.5 6 Boris 147.5 7 Georgia 152.5 8 Amelia 162.59 Gretchen 165.5 10 William 187.5 11 Khaled 192.5 12 Iris 207.513 Rey 211.5 14 Thor 212.5 15 Oswald 215 16 Ariel 241.5 17 Jenya 245.5 18 Ellis 264.5 19 Roxy 267.5 20 Kirsten 268.5 21 Tiberius 269.5 22 Pete 270.5 23 Jason 317.5 that's really good! and it was really close between levi/donald, i think 1 or 2 people switched at the last minute. there was a late push for donald, actually I was invited to a chat with ellis/rey/kirsten/pete/jason where ellis was pushing everyone to up donald on their lists... and typical jason/pete didn't say a word during the whole thing. -_-
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Post by Donald on Jun 9, 2009 14:32:23 GMT -5
It's their faults I was exiled! Rey at least mentioned I said I'd be away during this time, and gave pretty significantly early notice...
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Post by Donald on Jun 9, 2009 14:32:50 GMT -5
And that's sick with Jason and Pete as the top two cits I'm really surprised.
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Post by Thor on Aug 2, 2009 14:50:02 GMT -5
I love how I had a better score than Rey. And everyone below Iris, including Pete and Jason, was someone I had perceived as strongly Citizen, but Iris and above were all people I highly suspected at one point or another (except Boris). XD
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Post by Kirsten on Aug 2, 2009 17:26:21 GMT -5
I think I had a pretty good score, but I can't quite remember.
I had Donald #1, and Iris #2. Amelia was like 12th on my list. I can't remember where Pete/Jason ended up, but I think Pete was around 14ish, and Jason 15-19ish.
The bottom half of my list was kind of me just throwing it together and not caring about order, though, so I even if I had a good list, it was kind of random (except for Iris/Donald. Whooo).
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Post by Ed on Aug 8, 2009 2:01:40 GMT -5
I also threw together the end of my list somewhat haphazardly, but still....for 2 spies to be at the bottom of the cumulative list is pretty amazing.
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Post by Kirsten on Aug 14, 2009 1:22:33 GMT -5
Donald: 1 Iris: 2 Pete: 12 Amelia: 14 Jason: 16
Score: 45.
Sam, out of curiosity, who had the best score. Do you know offhand?
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Post by Ellis on Aug 14, 2009 15:20:43 GMT -5
Donald: 1 Iris: 2 Pete: 12 Amelia: 14 Jason: 16 Score: 45. Sam, out of curiosity, who had the best score. Do you know offhand? LOL, I think I'm scoring worse than that with just Pete, Jason and Iris, so it's not me this time. (I say "this time" because in Spies 3 we did a similar thing, and it was...) I've considered adding up the scores, but after seeing that I didn't mention a single suspicion of Jason anywhere in this entire episode, I don't want yet another blow to my ego, thanks.
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Post by Jason on Aug 14, 2009 16:50:29 GMT -5
In that case we should definitely add the scores up!! j/k I had a score of 45.... But that's without myself. I'm sort of disappointed that I left Iris and Pete so far back on the list
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Post by Kirsten on Aug 14, 2009 16:59:36 GMT -5
In that case we should definitely add the scores up!! j/k I had a score of 45.... But that's without myself. I'm sort of disappointed that I left Iris and Pete so far back on the list You could have had a score of 10 but you blew it.
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Post by Judge Sam on Aug 16, 2009 22:06:29 GMT -5
I had lost the pieces of paper I used to calculate the vote for this Episode but after rummaging through some things I was able to find it! There's tons of interesting data here, some of which is in this thread. You can view it all for yourself in this Excel file I uploaded to Google Spreadsheets: spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmZ_k4rQEClsdENvaWxySDR1N2VkWko3aHF5YkRCZ1E&hl=enThat right there calculates how suspicious everyone in the game is based on their Exile #4 lists. If more people list you at the top, then they think you are a Spy. Here's the complete list: Rank - Name - Total Points - Average Placing 1 Donald 135.5 7.5282 Levi 149 8.278 3 Mirela 167 9.278 4 Faith 179 9.944 5 Ed 200 11.111 6 Boris 205 11.389 7 Amelia 208.5 11.5838 Georgia 210 11.667 9 Gretchen 223 12.389 10 William 245 13.611 11 Khaled 250 13.889 12 Iris 253.5 14.08313 Rey 269 14.944 14 Thor 270 15 15 Oswald 272.5 15.1389 16 Ariel 299 16.611 17 Jenya 303 16.833 18 Pete 316.5 17.58319 Ellis 322 17.889 20 Roxy 325 18.056 21 Kirsten 326 18.111 22 Tiberius 327 18.167 23 Jason 363.5 20.194(Some of this data may be different than ones I reported in this thread, I found an error and fixed it. The list is basically the same with the exception that Pete has moved from 22nd to 18th most suspicious.) Now that only includes citizen's suspicions, I guess if you wanted a look at the game as a whole was feeling at the time you would include the Spies true lists. Since Oswald and the Spies did not submit lists, I used the average ranking of 11.5. This is because the goal is to get the most amount of points, if you don't give out any points than you are giving an advantage to yourself. So that's how the citizens thought of the game at the time of Exile #4. They got one Spy at the top which is excellent! Unfortunately they also have one Spy at the bottom. -_- Iris is smack dab in the middle and the other two are almost exactly in the middle of the top half and bottom half. That's crazy! But how accurate were your suspicions compared to others? Here's how I calculated it. You ranked all the players from 1-22. I just added up your rankings to get a point score. Like if you ranked the Spies 1st, 3rd, 8th, 11th, and 15th, I'd add up 1 + 3 + 8 + 11 + 15 = 38 points. The one with the least points wins! (for Spies I added 11.5 points to themselves to make it comparable. Iris was Jailed.) LEAST POINTS 45.0 - Kirsten (ranked Donald 1st, Iris 2nd, Pete 12th, Amelia 14th, Jason 16th out of 22 people) 48.0 - Gretchen 48.5 - Pete50.0 - Khaled 50.0 - Rey 50.0 - Boris 50.5 - Amelia 53.5 - Jason54.0 - Ed 54.0 - Mirela 55.0 - Ellis 57.5 - RANDOM.ORG's SCORE59.0 - Thor 60.0 - Jenya 61.0 - Faith 63.0 - Roxy 63.0 - William 67.0 - Tiberius 67.0 - Georgia 70.0 - Ariel 72.0 - Levi (ranked Donald 3rd, Pete 11th, Amelia 15th, Iris 21st, Jason 22nd out of 22 people) 80.5 - DonaldMOST POINTS So I think that was pretty cool, what do you think? Another interesting thing to note, is that if you average out the Citizen's scores, you get 58.1, which is worse than RANDOM.ORG's score. ;D
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Rey
Rey
Amor del Rey
Posts: 161
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Post by Rey on Aug 16, 2009 23:45:16 GMT -5
Yay for fourth! Yay for Gretchen being SECOND!
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Post by Gretchen on Aug 22, 2009 21:27:17 GMT -5
Yes, well quite clearly I am very, very stupid Rey.
Just ask DC and Xman.
Pfffffffft.
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Post by Ellis on Aug 23, 2009 9:47:52 GMT -5
Yay for fourth! Yay for Gretchen being SECOND! Yay for beating random.org but being outscored by three spies! Oh wait... EDIT: come to think of it, I'm gonna say the same thing I said in Spies 3 in a similar situation as this. In this one Kirsten's spy picks only averaged position 9 out of 21 (5 spies, 45 points). And that was the single best score of the lot. That's TERRIBLE!
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