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Post by Levi on Jul 9, 2009 9:36:44 GMT -5
It's never too early to start, right?
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Jenya
Jenya
Knew Something Was Off About That Emo Freak...
Posts: 7
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Post by Jenya on Jul 9, 2009 9:46:12 GMT -5
vote: Levi
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Post by Levi on Jul 9, 2009 9:48:16 GMT -5
vote: Jenya
OMGUS is the way to go!
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Post by Tiberius on Jul 9, 2009 10:00:47 GMT -5
People I'm not ready to vote for at time time -Boris, I just don't see how Boris was brought up as an alternate exile to a spy right now, if he was a spy too. The third spy wouldn't choose to bus Boris over Amelia unless they were damn stupid. So for now, Boris be clear - Levi I just... trust him at this time. - Kirsten, she very well might be a spy, but it's not worth the risk with the current evidence - Roxy, it'll take a lot to convince me otherwise right now, especially after last night's exile - Georgia, pretty sure she's a citizen these days. Again, especially after last night People I Might Vote For -Jenya, my time capsule reminded me I was once suspicious of her, I want to look into that more, but for the reasons I mentioned in my time capsule, her "mind games" which I don't think are really as citizenish as she likes to pretend, and her unexpected switch to Amelia. - Pete, it's just a possibility, but an unlikely one. I'm more ready to believe than ever that the Spies might be Semi-Actives after Amelia - Mirela, for her role in the Thor exile, which I find just so so scummy especially now that Amelia is confirmed. Note: NOT FOR HER FAIL LOGIC. I don't think a spy would be so dumb to push something so counter-everything normal humans think like she does, so I actually think that's a point in her favor - Jason, I've randomly started looking his way all of a sudden. But I have no evidence or anything specific to say - Khaled, for reasons that every person in the burg have gone over 100 times, though he's looking better after last night - Gretchen, for Levi's reasons, basically. I wont let sheep accusations scare me into not sometimes being interested in other people's cases  Overall, I'm pretty unsure right now. |
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Post by Gretchen on Jul 9, 2009 10:14:41 GMT -5
Vote = Levi Well done all who stayed on Amelia though! Nice job  These Spies are hilarious. |
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 9, 2009 15:18:40 GMT -5
I am fairly certain the last 2 spies are from this group of 3:
Gretchen, Georgia, Khaled.
We should take some time to examine the episode 2 teams:
My Team: Ep 2
Two dead spies: Donald + Jaya.
Living players: Gretchen + Georgia + Kirsten + Pete + Roxy + Tiberius.
There is at least 1 more spy from this group, and there is a chance for 2 more spies (for balance reasons I will go into later).
Roxy + Tiberius are both very likely citizens based on their interactions with spies (both remained unwaveringly on Amelia. Tiberius voted spies both the first two episodes. Jaya voted Donald based on his PM to her, and was pushed by Jaya as an information lynch).
I'm a citizen.
Pete is probably a citizen based on his voting record the first two rounds, him being an Amelia supporter both episodes 8/9, and because the guy really seems like a citizen when you chat with him.
That leaves Gretchen and Georgia.
If there are 2 spies left from this team, I bet it's those two (outside shot at Pete). If there is only 1 spy left, then have your pick.
The other team: Ep 2
Dead spies: Paris (sort of a spy), Iris, Amelia, Almathea (hypothesized)
Living players: Khaled, Boris, Jenya, Jason, Mirela, Levi
There is at most 1 remaining spy from this team, and it's possible there aren't any left here.
Jenya is probably a citizen based on her role, her actions throughout the game (looks to be hunting spies), and being on the episode 1 team that nailed a spy and has 3 dead spies from it already.
Mirela is likely a citizen based on her interactions with Iris, Amelia trying to push that she was a spy based on her being replaced, from pushing the Thor exile (I thought she looked like a citizen doing so), and based on my read from extensive chatting.
Levi is likely a citizen based on interactions with spies (Iris made him her bitch, was the competing wagon to Donald), and because he's one of the few players in this game who is actively seeking to find spies by pulling up evidence, interviewing players, and proposing ideas.
Jason is meh, probably a citizen based on being on the team he was episode 1, and I think him pro-actively pushing Yvette was a citizen-tell, but he hasn't done much for me lately. This is a citizen read I am "less sure of."
Boris I believe to be a citizen, based on the events of last exile, and because I don't think Sam would make a Russian a spy because of possible stereotyping. /late nod to Iris
Khaled I get mixed reads on. Has done limited scum hunting. Is connected to Iris in a less than flattering light. Voted Amelia over Yvette episode 3 based on very weak reasoning (distancing). The watcher role could go either way on it's own. On the other hand, though, Khaled strikes me as less likely to have imprisoned Ariel because it points back to him based on episode 1 groups.
I think if there is a spy here, it's Khaled. Outside shot to Jason.
Group Analysis
The group assignments in episode 2 were symmetrical from the group 1 assignments.
8 Members of the stronghold went into episode 2. They were split 4-4 amongst the two groups.
All 11 members of Mei Yun's went into episode 2. They were splity 6-5 amongst the two groups. Team Me got 6, while Team Not Me got 5.
From that, we can hypothesize that The Clusterfuck was split 6-5 in the opposite fashion to keep team numbers even. Since the living members of this team were split 5-5, we can hypothesize that Almathea was originally part of that team.
Which means we had:
Jaya + Donald
vs.
Almathea + Paris + Iris + Amelia
A fully balanced plate would have the remaining two spies both be from my team (thus Gretchen/Georgia with outside Pete chance). This isn't necessarily ironclad, though, as maybe Paris didn't count in balancing and perhaps I'm wrongly assigning Almathea, which means there could still be one left from that team. That would be Khaled, with outside Jason chance.
So, Georgia, Gretchen, Khaled.
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Post by Georgia on Jul 9, 2009 15:30:04 GMT -5
Nice hopping on the wagon, Kirsten. xD
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 9, 2009 15:40:28 GMT -5
Nice hopping on the wagon, Kirsten. xD There's a wagon? |
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 9, 2009 15:50:35 GMT -5
People need to post their suspects, so I know who to put on my trust/not trust list . |
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Post by Levi on Jul 9, 2009 16:03:12 GMT -5
People I Think Are Probable Citizens: Jenya, Kirsten, Tiberius, Pete, Roxy
People Who Have an Outside Chance of Spyhood: Georgia, Boris, Mirela, Jason
My Suspects: Khaled, Gretchen
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Post by Georgia on Jul 9, 2009 16:08:44 GMT -5
What is this logic about keeping a spyAmelia around because she is "less dangerous" than someone else you think is a spy?
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Post by Tiberius on Jul 9, 2009 17:20:31 GMT -5
So wait. Pete Believes in the dreaded "Mirela-logic"?
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Post by Mirela on Jul 9, 2009 19:03:51 GMT -5
Hah, I knew I wasn't the only one who believed that!
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Post by Georgia on Jul 9, 2009 19:26:38 GMT -5
It looks like Mirela convinced Pete of this.?
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Post by Mirela on Jul 9, 2009 19:33:31 GMT -5
Uh no. I haven't even talked to Pete.
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Post by Georgia on Jul 9, 2009 19:39:11 GMT -5
Thor did have a bit of evidence on him, and Mirela (and Jason, lets not forget him too, people dont seem to remember him!) did a good job at convincing me that Thor was not only a very likely spy, but, much more dangerous to keep around then Amelia (who we had both agreed upon as being a spy?!)
It says right there that Mirela (and Jason) did a good job of convincing him (Pete).
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Post by Georgia on Jul 10, 2009 2:45:55 GMT -5
What makes the deflector role, a citizen role?
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 10, 2009 2:56:22 GMT -5
Uh no. I haven't even talked to Pete. June 20th spies6mirela (4:32:41 AM): imma head to bed soon, soon as i finish this convo with petey lol spies6Kirsten (4:32:44 AM): and also tired in the regular sense of the word too spies6Kirsten (4:32:49 AM): oh, is pete on? spies6mirela (4:32:56 AM): yeah, i'm speaking with him right now spies6mirela (4:33:03 AM): were finally having a real conversation lol spies6Kirsten (4:33:12 AM): madness |
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 10, 2009 3:01:40 GMT -5
June 24th
spies6mirela (7:57:47 PM): so i tried to convince pete to vote thor
spies6mirela (7:58:01 PM): he was extremely relunctant
spies6mirela (7:58:34 PM): i hope gretchen ends up voting thor
spies6mirela (7:58:40 PM): apparently amelia is voting thor LOL
spies6Kirsten (7:58:49 PM): Amelia is voting Thor?
spies6Kirsten (7:58:50 PM): wow
spies6mirela (7:58:58 PM): i talked with her yesterday
spies6mirela (7:59:19 PM): and she said that she'll most likely take a gamble and vote thor to save herself
spies6Kirsten (8:00:28 PM): a gamble?
spies6Kirsten (8:00:35 PM): more like a calculated measure
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Post by Gretchen on Jul 10, 2009 3:12:53 GMT -5
spies6mirela (7:58:34 PM): i hope gretchen ends up voting thor
Why is that Mirela? You didn't know I was planning on voting Thor as I never told you.
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Post by Gretchen on Jul 10, 2009 3:14:02 GMT -5
BTW I have ignored all of Kirsten's assumptions I am a Spy on purpose. Just in case anyone decides to be massively creative and ask me why I haven't responded.
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 10, 2009 8:06:24 GMT -5
spies6mirela (7:58:34 PM): i hope gretchen ends up voting thor Why is that Mirela? You didn't know I was planning on voting Thor as I never told you. spies6Kirsten (12:06:08 AM): I talked to William and Gretchen spies6Kirsten (12:06:13 AM): Gretchen seems willing to vote Thor spies6mirela (12:06:20 AM): LOL spies6mirela (12:06:27 AM): well that's good |
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Post by Levi on Jul 10, 2009 8:53:32 GMT -5
BTW I have ignored all of Kirsten's assumptions I am a Spy on purpose. Just in case anyone decides to be massively creative and ask me why I haven't responded. Why haven't you responded? |
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 10, 2009 8:56:13 GMT -5
Better yet, what is your purpose for ignoring me ? |
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Post by Georgia on Jul 10, 2009 10:15:40 GMT -5
.....
spies6Georgia (22:55:28): How come you said you hadn't talked to Pete, when I said/asked that it looked like you had convinced him on Thor over Amelia?
spies6mirela (22:56:18): The last time i spoke with pete was our conversation about thor
spies6mirela (22:56:35): i haven't spoken to him since, at least i don't think so
spies6mirela (22:57:16): let me check the chat logs
spies6mirela (22:59:33): the last conversation i had with pete was june 27th
spies6mirela (22:59:45): i asked him why he voted thor
spies6mirela (23:00:50): does that answer satisfy you?
spies6Georgia (23:01:20): I had asked/commented that it looked like you convinced Pete of going Thor over Amelia.
spies6mirela (23:01:30): i proposed the idea
spies6Georgia (23:01:30): So why would you say that you hadn't even spoken to him?
spies6mirela (23:01:47): i mean i haven't talked to him since then.
spies6mirela (23:02:1): about amelia or anyone else
spies6Georgia (23:02:19): But that wasn't even the topic at hand. It was to do with convincing him of Thor over Amelia.
spies6Georgia (23:02:30): So, I'm not sure why you even thought it was in the present tense.
spies6mirela (23:02:49): sorry i thought of it that way
spies6mirela (23:03:1): who do you suspect most this episode georgia?
spies6Georgia (23:03:25): Well how did you even think of it that way?
spies6Georgia (23:03:39): There was no wording to suggest that it was in the present tense.
spies6mirela (23:04:23): sometimes i don't think when i type. it's the same with not thinking when you speak
spies6mirela (23:04:27): it was a simple mistake
spies6Georgia (23:05:34): Nah, it wasn't really a simple mistake.
spies6Georgia (23:05:40): It wa ssomething out of left field.
spies6mirela (23:06:53): georgia are really going to blow such a simple answer out of proportion?
spies6Georgia (23:08:24): Have I blown it out of proportion? Not exactly.
spies6mirela (23:09:2): Look, what I meant by that answer was that I haven't spoken to Pete in a long while.
spies6mirela (23:09:12): Meaning I didn't tell him anything about my FAIL logic.
spies6Georgia (23:09:36): Then why did he say in that quote, that you did?
spies6mirela (23:09:53): oh my god
spies6Georgia (23:11:41): Are you saying/implying that Pete is lying?
spies6mirela (23:12:45): maybe i did explain my fail logic to him lo
spies6mirela (23:12:47): lol
.....
I asked her.
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Post by Georgia on Jul 10, 2009 10:19:37 GMT -5
And it continued to be a "secret" because why?
Did you talk to Amelia about Thor, Mirela?
Any thoughts on why an AmeliaSpy(whom you seemed so convinced of), would vote for ThorSpy (whom you thought more dangers)?
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Post by Georgia on Jul 10, 2009 10:19:57 GMT -5
*dangerous
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Post by Kirsten on Jul 10, 2009 14:00:42 GMT -5
Georgia has placed a vote on one of the top two exile candidates 4 times out of 9 exiles:
Episode 1: She votes Mei Yun, who gets 3 votes to Roxy's 4.
Episode 4. She votes Levi, counterpart to Donald.
Episode 6. She votes Iris who was obviously a spy
Episode 7: She votes Thor, counterpart to Amelia.
I'm going to ignore episode 6, since that was basically an obvious vote that doesn't tell us much since it was unanimous.
Episode 1: (Georgia votes) Citizen -> (Actual exile) Unkown
Episode 4: (Georgia votes) Unkown -> (Actual exile) Spy
Episode 7: (Georgia votes) Citizen -> (Other Candidate) Spy
In 2 of the 3 cases where she has actually placed a vote on a target likely to be exiled it involved a spy as the candidate she did not vote for.
For someone who ignores bandwagons or other people's votes in determining how she votes, I find it suspicious that multiple times this has involved her voting against spies in close exiles. Georgia can basically get away with voting whoever she wants based on her playstyle, and I think it's suspicious that of the few times her vote has mattered in an exile it has been on the opposite wagon of a spy.
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Post by Mirela on Jul 10, 2009 15:57:32 GMT -5
Kirsten, what I meant by not speaking to Pete is that I havent talked to him lately. I thought Georgia meant that I talked to him this epiode or something.I didn't realize that quote was a Pete quote. Sorry. And I told Georgia when my last conversation with Pete was.
And Georgia, your voting record looks completely random. Can you make a post listing your reasons for voting everyone?
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Post by Tiberius on Jul 10, 2009 17:34:17 GMT -5
..... spies6Georgia (22:55:28): How come you said you hadn't talked to Pete, when I said/asked that it looked like you had convinced him on Thor over Amelia? spies6mirela (22:56:18): The last time i spoke with pete was our conversation about thor spies6mirela (22:56:35): i haven't spoken to him since, at least i don't think so spies6mirela (22:57:16): let me check the chat logs spies6mirela (22:59:33): the last conversation i had with pete was june 27th spies6mirela (22:59:45): i asked him why he voted thor spies6mirela (23:00:50): does that answer satisfy you? spies6Georgia (23:01:20): I had asked/commented that it looked like you convinced Pete of going Thor over Amelia. spies6mirela (23:01:30): i proposed the idea spies6Georgia (23:01:30): So why would you say that you hadn't even spoken to him? spies6mirela (23:01:47): i mean i haven't talked to him since then. spies6mirela (23:02:1): about amelia or anyone else spies6Georgia (23:02:19): But that wasn't even the topic at hand. It was to do with convincing him of Thor over Amelia. spies6Georgia (23:02:30): So, I'm not sure why you even thought it was in the present tense. spies6mirela (23:02:49): sorry i thought of it that way spies6mirela (23:03:1): who do you suspect most this episode georgia? spies6Georgia (23:03:25): Well how did you even think of it that way? spies6Georgia (23:03:39): There was no wording to suggest that it was in the present tense. spies6mirela (23:04:23): sometimes i don't think when i type. it's the same with not thinking when you speak spies6mirela (23:04:27): it was a simple mistake spies6Georgia (23:05:34): Nah, it wasn't really a simple mistake. spies6Georgia (23:05:40): It wa ssomething out of left field. spies6mirela (23:06:53): georgia are really going to blow such a simple answer out of proportion? spies6Georgia (23:08:24): Have I blown it out of proportion? Not exactly. spies6mirela (23:09:2): Look, what I meant by that answer was that I haven't spoken to Pete in a long while. spies6mirela (23:09:12): Meaning I didn't tell him anything about my FAIL logic. spies6Georgia (23:09:36): Then why did he say in that quote, that you did? spies6mirela (23:09:53): oh my god spies6Georgia (23:11:41): Are you saying/implying that Pete is lying? spies6mirela (23:12:45): maybe i did explain my fail logic to him lo spies6mirela (23:12:47): lol ..... I asked her. Lol @ her trying to change the subject XD |
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